The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber decreased in July
According to the monthly port data of the General Administration of Customs, in July 2026, China imported a total of 580000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), which is 54000 tons less than the 634000 tons in the same period of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%. In the first seven months, a total of 4.515 million tons arrived at the port, a decrease of 194000 tons from the same period last year's 4.709 million tons, with a cumulative decrease of 4.1%. This is the third consecutive month after May and June that the combined caliber import volume has been lower than the corresponding month of the previous year.
The dual effect of profit window and demand is the main factor causing the narrowing of import volume. In the first half of the year, the benchmark of Thailand's STR20 mixed rubber against Shanghai rubber remained at a low level of 200-300 yuan/ton for many months, flattening the hedging space for traders; In terms of latex, overseas cup adhesive prices remain strong, with Thai, American, and gold prices inverted to domestic RMB spot prices, with a price difference of up to 2000 yuan/ton. Importers are unwilling to accept shipments at a loss. Downstream steel tire and all steel tire enterprises arranged high-temperature maintenance in July, and in late June, low-priced replenishment was needed to meet some of the overdrawn demand. The factory's raw material inventory remained available for 10-20 days, and there were fewer proactive acceptance of ocean going cargo.
The port inventory also provides side evidence. Qingdao's general trade warehouse Tianjiao is still over 40% higher than the same period last year, with a slight decrease in bonded warehouses. Traders mainly rotate warehouses, and spot liquidity is not tight enough to rely on imports for emergency relief. Combined with the fluctuation of the RMB to USD exchange rate in July 2026, some long-term contract shipping schedules have been postponed to August, further reducing the arrival count for that month.
In the second half of the year, the shipping schedule for the prosperous season in northern Southeast Asia will be concentrated. If the output in northeastern Thailand returns to normal and processing profits recover in August, there is room for replenishment in import volume. However, the total import volume for the whole year is likely to fall within the range of 7.8-8 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year.
