In July, heavy-duty truck sales reached 92,000 units, marking an 8.4% year-on-year increase

It is reported that the heavy-duty truck market in July 2026 achieved year-on-year growth but experienced a notable month-on-month cooling. According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, China's heavy-duty truck market sold approximately 92,000 units (wholesale sales, including exports and new energy vehicles) in July this year, down about 21% compared to June but up roughly 8.4% year-on-year, with a significantly slower growth rate than the March-June period. However, this still represents a historic high for July sales over the past six years.

From January to July this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy-duty truck industry reached approximately 753,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of about 21%.

The reason for the year-on-year growth in the wholesale sales of heavy-duty trucks in July was primarily due to sustained overseas exports and continued significant growth in electric heavy-duty trucks. The month-on-month decline was attributed to the market absorbing the effects of policy pre-emptive overuse after the heavy-duty truck AEBS regulations took effect in mid-July, coupled with domestic terminal demand entering its off-season, leading to a sequential drop in industry sales.

First, benefiting from strong demand in markets such as Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Central Asia, China's heavy-duty truck industry maintained an upward trend in overseas exports in July, with monthly exports expected to grow by over 36% year-on-year.

Second, although the year-on-year growth rate of new energy heavy trucks has slowed, the terminal demand remains relatively strong compared to traditional power heavy truck models. Particularly in the first half of the month, influenced by the regulatory requirement mandating the installation of AEBS in new heavy trucks starting July 14, there were still instances of early registration and operation permits across various regions, leading to continued significant year-on-year growth in the purchase demand for electric heavy trucks. After mid-July, as most regions completed the regulatory transition and demand notably waned, sales in segmented markets—including electric heavy trucks, LNG heavy trucks, and diesel heavy trucks—experienced significant month-on-month declines.

Third, due to the still inconspicuous price advantage of oil and gas, gas-powered heavy trucks showed no signs of recovery in July. Additionally, as the market entered its off-season, sales declined by double digits year-on-year.

The growth rate of electric vehicles has slowed down, while gas-powered vehicles remain "latent."

In July 2026, China's heavy-duty truck market experienced five consecutive price increases. How did the performance of sub-sectors such as natural gas-powered heavy-duty trucks and new energy heavy-duty trucks fare?

In July this year, due to regulatory changes, a large number of new heavy-duty trucks were registered and insured in May and June, leading to a slight decline in actual terminal sales of domestic heavy-duty trucks compared to the same period last year. The market slowdown was evident, with a nearly 25% month-on-month decrease compared to June of this year.

Let’s start with natural gas heavy-duty trucks. The sales trend of natural gas heavy-duty trucks primarily depends on the oil-gas price differential. From late June to late July, the refueling price of LNG for vehicles had already declined somewhat, with the price of LNG in northern regions dropping from around 7 yuan per kilogram to approximately 5.5-5.8 yuan per kilogram. However, oil prices also continued to fluctuate during this period. Given the diesel prices at many private gas stations, which exceeded 5 yuan per liter, the oil-gas price differential remained insignificant in July of this year. With an insignificant oil-gas price differential, natural gas heavy-duty trucks lack the economic advantage over diesel vehicles, and their sales cannot reverse year-on-year. According to domestic terminal data, the sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks in July are expected to decrease by about 28% month-on-month and nearly 40% year-on-year, with domestic penetration dropping to around 13-14%. To achieve a "turnaround from adversity," natural gas heavy-duty trucks still rely on further declines in LNG prices. If the price can drop to 4-5 yuan per kilogram, their economic advantage will be fully demonstrated, and the terminal sales in this niche market can recover from the trough.

Turning to new energy heavy-duty trucks, in the second quarter of 2026, driven by increased demand from the replacement of national IV and V standard trucks, the transition to AEBS regulations, and fluctuations in oil and gas prices, domestic sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks continued to surge. However, by July—particularly after mid-month—the segment also faced a month-on-month decline. In July 2024, terminal sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks are projected to grow approximately 68% year-on-year (lower than the 104% and 108% year-on-year growth rates in May and June), but with a roughly 25% month-on-month decline, showing a clear cooling trend. Although the new energy heavy-duty truck market will continue to grow rapidly in the second half of the year (on a year-on-year basis), July and August, as off-season months, will experience a certain decline compared to May and June, with August likely marking the "low point" for this segment in the second half of the year.