"Dual-Wheel Drive" of Policy and Capital: New-Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks Accelerate "Lane Change" in a Trillion-Yuan Stock Market

Heavy-duty trucks are a core source of carbon emissions in the transport sector, accounting for about 40% of total transport carbon emissions, making them a key area for energy conservation and carbon reduction. Cai Tuanjie, Chief Safety Officer and Director of the Transport Services Department at the Ministry of Transport, recently stated that the campaign to scrap and renew old operating trucks will continue in 2026, with 22 billion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds allocated to support the scrapping and renewal of old operating trucks, with a focus on supporting upgrades to new-energy heavy-duty trucks. The aim is to use the "Two New" policies (large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in) to boost market consumption of new-energy heavy-duty trucks.

Backed by "real money," replacement demand for old heavy-duty trucks will continue to be released, further raising the market penetration rate of new-energy heavy-duty trucks and injecting strong momentum into the green and low-carbon transition of the freight industry.

Multiple Policy Tailwinds for Development

Heavy-duty truck exhaust is a major contributor to mobile-source pollution, with a significant impact on air quality in key regions such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Fenwei Plain. Scaling up the application of new-energy heavy-duty trucks can effectively reduce emissions of pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. As of the end of 2025, the national heavy-duty truck fleet totaled about 8.6 million units. This vast stock market provides broad space for the substitution and upgrading of new-energy heavy-duty trucks.

In recent years, the state and local governments have continued to implement a series of policies such as the "old-for-new" truck replacement program, with support resources tilted heavily toward new-energy models. This has effectively accelerated the retirement and replacement of old, high-emission heavy-duty trucks, becoming one of the core drivers behind the rapid rise in new-energy heavy-duty truck penetration.

Driven by both policy and market forces, China's new-energy heavy-duty trucks have seen explosive growth since 2025. Data shows that in 2025, domestic terminal sales of new-energy heavy-duty trucks reached 231,000 units, up 182% year-on-year. The growth momentum continued in 2026, with cumulative sales in the first half of the year reaching about 140,000 units, up 78.6% year-on-year, and the pace of industry penetration continuing to accelerate.

Looking at regional development differences, the new-energy heavy-duty truck market shows pronounced differentiation. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, said that in 2026, the penetration rates of new-energy heavy-duty trucks in central and southwestern regions rank among the highest nationwide. Among them, the southwestern region, leveraging a well-developed new-energy industry chain, dense logistics and transport scenarios, and lenient local support policies, posted the fastest penetration growth in the country. The northern region remains in a steady substitution phase, with growth in the Northeast and other areas relatively moderate.

Since the beginning of this year, multiple top-level policies have continued to empower the development of new-energy heavy-duty trucks. The "Notice on Implementing the Scrapping and Renewal of Old Operating Trucks in 2026," issued by the Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission, proposes supporting the scrapping and renewal of operating trucks meeting the China III and China IV emission standards (including diesel and natural gas trucks), accelerating the renewal of a batch of high-standard, low-emission operating trucks, and giving priority to upgrades with electric trucks. For scrapping old operating trucks, scrapping and renewing with China VI emission standard trucks or new-energy trucks, or only purchasing qualifying new-energy trucks, differentiated subsidy standards are implemented based on the type of scrapped vehicle, the timing of scrapping, and the powertrain type of the newly purchased vehicle.

The "Implementation Plan for Scaling Up the Application of New-Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks," jointly issued by 11 departments including the Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission, proposes that by 2030, the penetration rate of new-energy heavy-duty trucks will reach 40%, with the fleet exceeding 1.6 million units and accounting for about 20% of the total. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Fenwei Plain, and other areas, the electrification rate of fixed-route short-haul transport will exceed 80%. In conjunction with the expressway network, electric heavy-duty truck recharging facilities will be built to create zero-carbon road transport corridors, with support and guidance for the construction of about 3,000 heavy-duty truck charging and battery-swapping stations.

Whole-Life-Cycle Cost Advantage Widens

New-energy heavy-duty trucks have a significant operating cost advantage. According to estimates by Xu Changming, a senior economist at the State Information Center, a single new-energy heavy-duty truck can save about 1.2 million yuan over a ten-year operating cycle compared with a fuel vehicle.

In recent years, as vehicle technology continues to iterate and power battery costs steadily decline, the initial purchase cost of new-energy heavy-duty trucks has kept falling. Coupled with low operating costs, their total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage continues to widen. Particularly under the current high-oil-price market environment, the economic advantage of new-energy heavy-duty trucks has become even more pronounced.

"According to estimates, the TCO of new-energy heavy-duty trucks is optimal at an annual mileage of 45,000 to 100,000 kilometers," a Guotai Junan Securities research report noted. With technological maturity and cost reduction, new-energy heavy-duty trucks already have endogenous growth momentum, and the new-energy penetration rate is expected to continue rising in 2026.

A Huatai Securities research report pointed out that electric heavy-duty trucks have an advantage over LNG/diesel heavy-duty trucks in recharging costs. Rising oil prices have a more direct amplifying effect on economy, and recharging cost savings are expected to gradually offset negative factors such as payload loss, recharging efficiency, and residual value. At an oil price of $100-120 per barrel, the TCO advantage of nationally subsidized pure-electric heavy-duty trucks can widen to 437,000-695,000 yuan. Considering that medium- and short-haul trunk lines, ports, mining areas, and regional logistics are the first scenarios to achieve closed-loop operating conditions, the penetration rate of electric heavy-duty trucks is expected to approach 37% in 2026, with sales up about 28% year-on-year.

Continuously Expanding Application Scenarios

It is worth noting that new-energy heavy-duty trucks currently have mature technical solutions and business models in medium- and short-haul scenarios characterized by relatively fixed operating sites, short one-way distances, and high transport frequency, where they are widely applied. In contrast, their application scale in long-haul trunk transport remains relatively small.

Against this backdrop, promoting the expansion of new-energy heavy-duty trucks from closed, fixed scenarios such as ports and mining areas to open scenarios such as cross-provincial trunk routes has become a core lever for the industry's next stage of growth.

Cai Tuanjie said that while scaling up the use of new-energy heavy-duty trucks in medium- and short-haul transport scenarios and accelerating the new-energy substitution of in-yard transfer vehicles at major freight nodes, large transport enterprises, express delivery and logistics companies, and scaled freight fleets should take the lead in adopting new-energy heavy-duty trucks in trunk-road transport.

At present, mainstream domestic heavy-duty truck manufacturers have launched dedicated new-energy models for different scenarios. FAW Jiefang released a systematic solution for coal transport scenarios, rolling out new-energy heavy-duty truck models for three categories of scenarios-short-haul, intercity medium- and short-haul, and cross-provincial long-haul trunk routes-while simultaneously providing integrated services such as vehicle-battery separation leasing, customized financing, and recharging network construction. Shacman launched targeted new-energy heavy-duty truck models for scenarios including coal, sand-and-gravel, and highway transport, as well as short-haul shuttle within steel plants and port transport, and promoted the scaled delivery of its battery-swapping models.

Beyond policy guidance and continuous product iteration, improving the charging and battery-swapping infrastructure network is an important support for accelerating the adoption of new-energy heavy-duty trucks. Cai Tuanjie said efforts will focus on busy freight sections of national expressways and ordinary national and provincial highways; city clusters and metropolitan areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Chengdu-Chongqing region; and key nodes such as freight hubs, ports, mining areas, factory zones, and industrial parks. More than 3,000 electric heavy-duty truck charging and battery-swapping stations will be built to advance the "connecting points into lines and networks" of recharging facilities.