米其林2025年第三季度业绩表现喜忧参半

2025年10月22日，米其林集团公布第三季度财报，显示截至9月的九个月内销售额同比下降4.4%，总收入达到193亿欧元（约合人民币1595.96亿元）。

这一数据揭示了全球轮胎市场的鲜明对比：以中国为代表的新兴市场逆势增长，而欧美传统核心市场持续疲软。加之东南亚廉价轮胎的冲击，共同削弱了米其林的市场表现。

值得注意的是，尽管第三季度销售额较第二季度有所回升，但复苏势头远低于市场预期，导致该集团在发布盈利预测后股价暴跌4.5%，创下六个月新低。

Notably, while third-quarter sales improved quarter-over-quarter compared to the second quarter, the recovery was far weaker than market expectations, leading to a 4.5% plunge in the group's stock price following the release of its earnings forecast, hitting a six-month low.

区域困境：欧美紧缩与政策阴影的双重夹击

北美市场遭受的打击最为严重，第三季度销售额同比下降近10%。卡车和农业领域原始设备制造商(OEM)的需求大幅下滑，其中卡车轮胎市场暴跌20%。

这一下滑源于三个因素：高库存水平抑制了即时购买需求，未来关税政策的不确定性使得经销商采取观望态度，而美国环保署2027年新规前景不明朗进一步削弱了车队的长期投资意愿。

欧洲市场表现亦不佳，乘用车轮胎市场延续下滑态势。卡车轮胎市场虽在第三季度显现复苏迹象，但这主要是基于与去年同期相比极低的基数，且尚未转化为实际增长。

更为严重的是，欧盟对中国乘用车轮胎的反倾销调查仍在进行中，预计将在2025年底前做出初步裁决，且可能追溯至10月起生效。这一政策威胁不仅扰乱了欧洲供应链的稳定性，还间接限制了米其林调整价格的空间。

The European market also performed poorly, with the passenger car tire market continuing its downward trend. While the truck tire market showed signs of recovery in the third quarter, this was primarily based on an extremely low base compared to the same period last year, and has not yet materialized.

More seriously, the EU's anti-dumping investigation into Chinese passenger car tires is ongoing, with a preliminary ruling expected by the end of 2025, potentially taking retroactive effect from October. This policy threat not only disrupts the stability of the European supply chain but also indirectly limits Michelin's room for price adjustments.

业务板块：核心业务受挫，亮点领域有所弥补

（一）乘用车轮胎：中国市场提供关键支撑

核心乘用车、轻型卡车及两轮车轮胎业务在前三季度实现销售额105.04亿欧元，同比下降2.5%。中国市场的强劲表现为整体业绩提供了重要缓冲——得益于新车补贴政策的激增，米其林在华乘用车零部件业务同比增长9%，直接推动该品类全球销售额增长2%。

在替换市场上，尽管面临东南亚低价轮胎的竞争，米其林凭借其高端品牌保持了稳定，在欧洲市场实现了4%的增长，在中国市场也取得了1%的温和增长。然而，受美国关税影响，两轮车轮胎业务增长乏力。

（二）卡车

In the replacement market, despite facing competition from low-priced tires in Southeast Asia, Michelin maintained stability thanks to its premium brand, achieving a 4% increase in the European market and a modest 1% growth in the Chinese market. However, the two-wheeler tire business saw sluggish growth due to the impact of US tariffs.

(II) Truck 轮胎全球零部件市场急剧下滑

卡车轮胎业务是受影响最严重的领域，销售额同比下降8.1%，降至45.1亿欧元。若不计中国市场，全球卡车轮胎市场整体萎缩了4%，南美市场也下降了8%。仅中国市场实现了3%的增长，但由于其市场份额有限，未能扭转整体下滑的趋势。

替换市场呈现区域分化：北美和中美洲前三季度因关税前囤货推动增长6%；阿根廷因开放进口政策激增27%，而巴西市场则下滑8%。

（三）特种轮胎：需求不均

特种轮胎业务销售额下降5%，至42.61亿欧元，呈现出喜忧参半的局面。得益于商业航空的复苏，飞机轮胎销售持续向好，通用航空市场已恢复至2020年前的水平。采矿轮胎需求亦稳步增长。然而，农用与工程机械轮胎需求大幅下滑，其中工程机械轮胎前九个月同比下降9%，仅在第二季度末出现小幅回升。

(III) Specialty Tires: Uneven Demand

Sales of the specialty tire business declined by 5% to €4.261 billion, presenting a mixed picture. Aircraft tires benefited from the recovery of commercial aviation, with continued positive sales, and the general aviation market has returned to pre-2020 levels. Demand for mining tires also saw steady growth. However, demand for agricultural and construction tires declined sharply, with construction tires down 9% year-on-year in the first nine months, showing only a slight recovery at the end of the second quarter.

压力下的表现：多重负面因素影响绩效

除了市场需求疲软外，多重外部因素进一步加剧了业绩压力。在盈利能力方面，原材料价格指数联动效应的减弱，加上东南亚廉价轮胎的价格竞争，使得米其林“价格组合”对营收的正向贡献持续削弱。汇率波动亦对此产生了影响。

第三季度美元对欧元的走弱带来了2.3%的负面影响。此外，美元汇率低于预期（1欧元兑1.17美元），直接拖累了集团的自有现金流。

The weakening of the US dollar against the euro in the third quarter had a negative impact of 2.3%. Furthermore, the US dollar exchange rate was lower than expected (US$1.17 to 1 euro), which directly dragged down the group's free cash flow.