WTO: Middle East Conflict Increases Global Trade Risks in 2026

March 20, 2026

Xinhua News Agency

1278

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The World Trade Organization released its Global Trade Outlook report on March 19, predicting that global trade in goods will grow by 1.9 per cent in 2026, down significantly from 4.6 per cent in 2025. The report emphasizes that the conflict in the Middle East is the main risk factor. If energy prices continue to rise, it may reduce trade growth by another 0.5 percentage points to 1.4 per cent in 2026, with spillover effects such as food security and business costs. On the other hand, trade growth in 2025 exceeded expectations, mainly due to the surge in trade in artificial intelligence-related goods ($4.18 trillion billion, accounting for 42% of the total global trade growth) and the early import of enterprises to avoid US tariffs. WTO Director-General Iweala pointed out that although global trade is resilient, the uncertainty brought about by conflicts poses a challenge. The report also mentions that if the conflict lasts for a short period of time and artificial intelligence spending remains strong, trade growth still has the potential to rise to 2.4 per cent in 2026.

　　Geneva, March 19 (Xinhua) (Reporter Jiao Qian) The World Trade Organization released its latest global trade outlook report on the 19th, predicting that the growth rate of global goods trade in 2026 will be 1.9%, a significant decline compared to the growth rate in 2025. WTO economists warn that the current Middle East conflict may further drag down global trade growth.

　　The report shows that due to the surge in trade of artificial intelligence-related products and companies importing in advance to avoid the U.S. government's excessive tariffs, global goods trade is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2025, exceeding expectations.

　　WTO Director-General Iweala stated that day that global trade has a certain resilience. However, affected by the Middle East conflict, the continuous rise in energy prices may increase global trade risks and may have spillover effects, affecting food security and putting cost pressure on consumers and businesses.

　　The report points out that if crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices continue to rise, the growth rate of global goods trade in 2026 will decrease by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4%.

　　WTO economists believe that if the Middle East conflict does not last long and spending related to the artificial intelligence industry remains strong throughout 2026 to 2027, there is still some upward potential for global trade. The growth rate of global goods trade in 2026 may increase by 0.5 percentage points to 2.4%.

　　The report shows that in 2025, the surge in demand for artificial intelligence-related goods offset the negative impact of rising tariffs and uncertainty on global trade. Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods increased from $3.43 trillion in 2024 to $4.18 trillion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, accounting for 42% of the total global trade growth in 2025.

Hainan explores bonded oil filling "one ship dual-use cross-customs area direct supply" to help shipping development

Hong Kong Cruise Economy Strong Recovery "Three Engines" to Show Results

Vehicles

Tyre

Auto Spareparts

Material

化工

WTO: Middle East Conflict Increases Global Trade Risks in 2026